I came quite close to buying a new apartment recently. Construction has already commenced at the site and is expected to complete sometime in 2010.If any of you readers are familiar with the property / construction sector in Singapore, please comment ....
ST Nov 28, 2008
Construction industry woes
Many of the 2,000 firms in DP Info's study have high debt, little cash and weak profitability
By Joyce Teo
THE local construction industry could already be in serious trouble heading into the economic downturn, new data from DP Information Group (DP Info) shows.
Ironically, the seeds of the problem were sown during the recent construction boom as firms snapped up projects using short-term credit to get things moving. As a result, many are heavily reliant on this short-term credit.
And they now face the risk of defaulting on repayments, should banks further tighten credit as times get tougher, the credit and business information firm said.
This finding was based on an analysis of the audited financial results of more than 2,000 construction firms lodged this year.
About three in four have an annual turnover of $10 million or less. The other 24 per cent are over $10 million. Overall, about 6,000 firms make up the construction industry here.
The analysis of the data found that many companies face not just one but multiple financial problems. These include: high levels of debt, low levels of liquidity and weak profitability. All these are all tell-tale signs of pending financial trouble, said DP Info.
Managing director Chen Yew Nah said: 'The research is a warning sign for the construction industry and while it does not mean a large number of firms will fall, it does mean they are vulnerable to collapse if their position deteriorates.'
DP Info's research showed that 45 per cent of the construction firms surveyed rely on short-term loans.
Of these firms, slightly more than half have debt levels that exceed the cash levels they have in the bank. This means that 27 per cent of all construction firms surveyed are likely to face financial difficulties if their short-term credit is denied or if the repayment terms are shortened.
Construction firms also face weak levels of liquidity. Of those surveyed, 45 per cent had less than $100,000 in cash. Of the firms relying on short-term loans, about 59 per cent of them with more than $100,000 in debt have less than $100,000 of cash at the bank.
A third weakness is profitability. About 35 per cent of construction firms reported net losses while 51 per cent have accumulated losses. Many construction firms do not have strong balance sheets in any event, but during the boom in the past two years, they took on more projects using short-term loans, said Ms Chen.
'The high level of dependence on short-term debt and the staggered pattern of receipts mean the construction industry will face difficulties if short-term credit dries up,' she said.
Many financial institutions may be reluctant to renew or extend credit if project sales are slow. If credit lines of constructions firms dry up, they may not be able to pay their sub-contractors or other firms promptly.
'What is needed is a coordinated effort by the Government, the industry and financial institutions to respond to the unique problems faced by the construction industry,' said Ms Chen.
For instance, an industry-specific response is required to ensure that the funds made available by the Government are best used.
The Government recently said it will help make available $2.3 billion worth of loans to help firms ride out the economic slowdown.
'Bankers need to articulate clearly what are the products available to help the sector, for example,' said Ms Chen.
Small construction firms are not likely to default as their debt exposure should not be extensive if their debt is related only to committed construction project works, said Singapore Contractors Association executive director Simon Lee.
Ms Chen said cash flow is emerging as a problem at some construction firms since they are not getting paid on time. 'Once you're in default, you have negative cash flow and are no longer a viable company,' warned Ms Chen.
Some firms have folded because of negative cash flow, even if they still have business to do, she said.
77 comments:
a good ppty is a good hard asset, tapping/extracting on yr CPF in a conservative comfortable manner. Needless to say, u might now abt the 3Ls. For me 3Ls also mean Location, Layout, Lifestyle from a practical perspective.
since the govt can't leave a giant construction hole in Marina Bay, look out for the 3Ls and if I may my 3Ls and last but not least a choice unit in the project.
I am not a ppty agent but I would say wait and see in the context of the above and stick to a 'big time' developer who do good sized projects. Technically USA has been in recession since Dec 2007 - wait n see how the market judges the obama administration.
Your choice would be semi-investment grade, good residential grade; or full investment grade. Last would be purely residential of low grade. All will be based on your decision on value and future plans i.e. holding power, staying power or purely practical value i.e. travel, schools ....
Another thing, when you stay for good ... at the end of 10 years, things usually need maintenance and repair.
my 2cts.
It's mainly school-driven, I wrote about this in a previous post.
Your contract is with the developer, not the construction company unless it is also the developer. As long as the developer is sound, your investment is quite safe but you may have to put up with delays in completion, changes in contractors etc.
In my case, the property developer and the construction company are two separate companies, but they belong to the same group.
you din mention who's the developer?
Umm, I don't really want to say, in case some readers start making negative comments and the company tries to sue me or something like that.
It's a mid-sized developer, not exactly small, but not one of the big ones like Capitaland, Far East or CDL.
mid-sized ... personally i won't touch. If a project w less than 200 units ... a little iffy.
2010 .. so no where near TOP ... can't c final form i.e. $$$ hv not rolled in enuf 4 their financing
hmmm although both companies are under the same group, but arent they considered as seperate companies under law?
some developers were originally contractors.
If it is not urgent,maybe it pays to wait, especially for private property. Who knows, there may be a crash next year if FTs and others leave in droves due to the prolonged recession and many new projects completed. Then you can have your pick. But then your current property may also have a lower resale price.
But my preference is to sell low and buy low as well, not sell high and buy high.
I will recommend checking out this blog on property monitoring in Singapore. It is being updated regularly and it gives really sound advice on what's coming up next.
http://smartpropertybuyer.blogspot.com/
I am also waiting for it to 'gradually' bottom out before moving in. Guess have to wait between a year and 2 years.
Mr Wang,
If the school you are targeting is really popular, your chances may be small even if you stay near the school.
your chances are much better if either you or your wife is alumni
wait for a while more. property market hasn't bottomed out. My dad works in construction sector and he's planning to buy nxt year.
Same group, mid-sized - I won't touch now. Unless I have studied their group annual report and can assess their their financial (worst case) scenarios for the next few years in order to gauge the likelihood of completion of the project without defaulting.
Otherwise, their are other ways of getting your son into a good school. Not worth risking the family's finances just to get into a school.
This is crazy, if you ask me.
eh Wang, you say is education driven, good. Because according to Warren Buffet hor, he say there are 2 types of properties. Residential and Commercial. And he say "investing" in residential properties often result in low or bad returns compared to stocks and shares or commercial properties. Don't speculate in residential properties with all the propaganda sprewed out by the you-know-who.
/// Basically I am a bit worried that the construction company might go bust before the project is completed. ///
This could be a concern, but it should not rank first. If I were you, I would be more concerned about the property prices (which are still relatively high) coming down quite substantially as Singapore (and the world) grapples with the recession. It would make sense for you to monitor the property prices over the coming few years. You probably can buy the unit you are eyeing right now at 20% to 30% cheaper in 2/3 years' time, and you would get a completed building and not having to worry whether the contractor or developer will go bust.
When buying property in places like Thailand it is very dangerous to buy off the plan. The 9:52 posting advising you to buy a completed building is correct. You may pay a bit more, but believe me you could also save yourself a lot of aggravation. There is also the OTHER aspect: you can check and be sure of what you are getting. Contractors going bust is one thing. Not assuring full quality control because of cas flow problems is another. My friend bought a condo unit a few years back from a well known developer and spent the nex two years trying to solve a water seepage problem!
I'm not considering buying the property for investment reasons. I'm considering buying the property to live in it.
I'm choosing an area which is in walking distance to my son's primary school, and also in walking distance to the girls' school that I plan to send my daughter to, in future.
The convenience will be for six years each, and if they go to the affiliated secondary school (which in both cases is next to the primary school), the convenience will be for up to 10 years each.
But yes, I also prefer to buy a completed building. Just that by then, the units I like may be bought by other people already.
Two words - distressed assets.
Many new units would be unsold due to retail credit crunch, weak bonuses etc. So unsold units cannot be priced at a new unit price.
Many buyers are also speculators who will be squeezed.
Fire sales and auction will further drive prices downwards.
I know!!! In fact this developer is already offering me a big discount (compared to original launch price) which is why I'm tempted.
wait for a while more. property market hasn't bottomed out. My dad works in construction sector and he's planning to buy nxt year.
I hear this "wait for next year" thing a lot. I am not an agent. But you cannot really give a time frame on such things. Still boils down to tracking the economy, the numbers, and one's own financial capability and needs.
It may help to check out other projects the developer/contractor have ongoing or in their portfolio, to get a better sense of their performance (in terms of business and construction/design quality).
Construction industry usually experience a time lag compared to the rest of the economy (ie they bottom out and recover later), as property developments have a momentum (and inertia to pick up)- so probably the worst is yet to come.
Actually I can wait ... June 2010 will be the latest time. I need to register my daughter for Primary One in June 2010.
Yes, do wait. You can even wait longer if you just rent a place near the target schools and change your address to qualify for priority...
Hi Mr. Wang,
i have been lurking at your blog for a long time. I have to say, you are very good...
Now is the time I can payback what i took from you (in terms of all the reading and laughing)
Anyway, all developers are required by Law to set up a Project account. This account is escrowed and the funds in this accounts are made up by the money you put in for yoru purchase.
The funds in this account can only be used towards, either construction of the project, and if there is surplus, towards repayment of the loan the developer took from the bank.
The reason for this account is that, if the developer or the contractor fail to fulfill the promise to complete the project, another developer can take over the project and continue building, using the funds in the project account.
In another words, your fear with this purchase is not whether the contractor will be able to complete the project, but rather the quality of the project.
bigger developer has a reputation to maintain, they usually are in position to deliever quality products and withstand the guarantee period.
smaller developer don't have much need to maintain reputation. they come and they go....
as to when to buy, in all honesty, it is a question only you can answer. there will never be cheap housing in singapore... would it be cheaper? nobody knows. IMHO, as long as it is a choice location for you and your family, the price is within your budget.... don't think too much about it.
"big discount" ....let's be more specific:-
1. what is the discount level?
900+ psf fell to 800+ psf, and now fell to 600+ to 700 psf ...
I'm eyeing the penthouses!
Agree with the previous guy. Always buy within the budget.
Agree with the previous guy. Always buy within the budget.
v v good discount level. i enjoyed 28% off list price in 2003/4 period.
what r u waiting for? kekeke
I dunno much abt penthouses except that they have a lot of 'spare' floor space that is counted as floor area.
So if I were you, pls validate against the psf on the apt below the penthouse level. That would give a more indicative idea. If it is penthouse, the mkt is small for such types of units. If u really like it in terms of quality of life and dun mind lots of 'exposed' floor space albeit against sunlight and if u do trellis gardens etc etc, then fine. O'wise, it is spare space that will gather stuff and wat not - still need some form of maintenance.
in other words, wat I am trying to say is that's why penthouses are priced accordingly - 'much' floor area and corresponding 'cheaper' psf. last but not least, does it feel like a penthouse or is it just a top floor apt with open access to the roof level privatised as yr terrrace etc.
2 cts.
just to clarify ... is it near or facing any temple area or dumping ground or industrial area etc etc. this experientially concerns viewing pleasure, premium ... or pain.
I'd always look at value first and know what decisions I am making. Then I look at the price level vs budget/holding power. The first premise is of course, motivation and purpose i.e. family, business, investment, speculation???
Whether I hope prices to go up or go down, then comes into consideration. This is where making up your mind independently is vital. Ppty is for long term, long term perspective.
Pweesng: I do know about the project account. The way I see it, however, if the times are really bad (and given the current global economy, I have to bear that in mind as a distinct possibility), it may take a very long time for another construction firm to step in ...
I'm sure this kind of situation (the construction firm going bust) must have happened in Singapore before, but I don't know what actually happened.
Mr Wang. All you have to is to take a bus ride (since I stay in Bangkok that's my most frequent mode of transport) down or up Sukhumvit Road in Bangkok and you will see the abandoned shells of condos and shopping centres that have yet to be completed. Rememeber the Lehmann fiasco and buyer beware. You are absolutely right. Our economy WILL be hard hit and many will NOT be able to survive the downturn. Some developers may prefer to leave buildings unfinished or renegotiate delayed completion. Those who CAN finish have already done so or are rushing projects to collect payment. Buyer beware is a good strategy during these times unless you want to help the economy by Spending and Spending!
Eh Wang, I just thinking since I no experience hor.
Penthouse hor is on the rooftop lah. In SG that means hor, you get maximum sun and heat loh. So at night or evening, wa you sure get free suana one. Like that is not really good leh. Especially if you need to on air con whole day, not worth right?
- Hojiber, again lazy to sign in
buy cds protection on the developer to hedge your c/p risk
Mayo1142 says:
So maybe we should be asking if the authorities should impose on developers to buy an insurance policy that covers the interests of property buyers...a liability insurance just as lawyers are required to do so, or doctors as well.;
Things to do with roof terraces or big balconies:
1. Have a roof garden
2. A little patio, where you can drink coffee, read a book etc
3. Barbecue at the rooftop
4. Keep a dog.
5. Have a koi pond.
6. Hang out the laundry ...
That project is not the only place I'm looking at ... Also checking out other places in the area ...
Wang:-
"it may take a very long time for another construction firm to step in " - it has happened before e.g. Changi Heights
"roof garden" etc - I did not mean that they are no good ideas ... as long as you are aware and know what you want. :)
Hi Mr Wang,
as someone who has extensive knowledge in the developer's market, i can tell you that it is unlikely to happen. Especially if the developer has already sold 45% or more of the development.
most of the time, enblocs are priced in such a way, when i sell 45% of the NSA, i will break even. Lower if it is a greenfield project.
Also, regarding project accounts. If the development has already hit 45% sales, no is no reason why i won't take over the project. for minimum capital outlay, and minimum exposure i will get 55% more apartments that i can sell at dirt cheap prices to make money.
on the same note, there is no reason why a developer will give up on a project if it has already broke even.
i'll share with you 2 things i look for when shopping for a property.
1) i only look for ground floor with large PES and top floor with large rooftop garden or balcony.
We need to remember that going forward, PES / Balcony / Roof top area are not going to be free anymore. these area will worth some money in time to come.
2) i will try very hard not to buy from developers. if they can sell 45% and break even... you can count back and work out what is the margin like.
again... good luck with your house hunting...
PWeesng
forgot to add... as a lawyer yourself.. i am sure you know that the developers and the banks are keeping your partners from the banking sector very busy with all the supplementary docs...
from them you will also find out how hard it is to abandon the project half way...
pweeseng
No rush. It will be a buyer's market for a while now. Just look up the bank auction lists - I will bet that list of auction properties will be growing in the next 6-12 mths. Anyone who have leveraged and pile into property from 2007 will be under water. It won't be long before the puking has to happen.
Thanks, everyone, for your advice and comments.
Today's ST has a write-up on whether to buy or sell property now. The headline seems to say Don't Buy, Don't Sell. ;p
Hey, I have a further question. I know that many buyers are very concerned about the directions that the property faces (North, South, Eas, West) because of the heat from the sun etc. Can someone explain to me in greater detail what that is all about ...
... And is the problem really not solveable by installing curtains, turning on a fan, opening the windows to let the breeze in etc.
Why take the risk?
THe problem is indeed not really solveable. I once stayed in a unit that facing south west, mid-high floor, on a hill top type of situation. The heat from the afternoon sun is trapped in the walls. The sunlight comes in enuf to be a bother. Your best curtains will be attacked by UV rays. Study the architecture of the building and the walls viz the natural lighting.
You stay at home or you come home at the end of the day, and already feel stale, you dun want a place that is so bright and warm inside and the air so humid and stale.
furthermore, some areas are like heat sinks, imho, Telok Kurau area is a heat sink itself. The area feels hot and the air stale after the afternoon ....
Breeze is not throughout the day and depends on whether you get the wind currents or not (you got to find out abt the area). If you are near a reservoir or basin or sea side, not a problem. Natural ventilation is better than artificial ventilation. Even at night when I sleep, at end of the year, it is so cool and windy that I dun need to close doors and windows and on the air con.
The best in N-S or S-N facing, mid to high floor. Try not to face main road and try not to face playgrounds - the noise travels up and not enuf privacy ...
marble floor is better than ceramic floor. Marble as a material is cooler as in cooling to walk on. I prefer natural marble.
Try to see if most of the rooms can get good ambient light coming in. It depends on the type of windows e.g. full height and width ... bay windows should be alright but the bay 'surface' is counted as floor area. Would be good if the surface is laid with marble and below the surface i.e. the gap is exploited as a cupboard or someting like that.
N-S / S-N is good again bcos, due to the earth tilt, the Sun does not exactly rise in the East and set in the West throughout the year.
The property market have not bottom out yet.Good thing/bargains comes to those who wait.Especially those who did not blindly follow the crowd and bought properties when it is peaking.
There is a global freeze in property investment now.The trend now is going toward rental/and home share(yes what our FT are doing all along).
Theory :-
In fact the situation now could develop into such that it will be interesting to see the FTs start buying our properties Cheaply and renting it out to Singaporean citizens because of the ownerships laws in place (IE PRs can buy resale flats without converting to citizens which incidentally cause the price to inflate "artificially" in the past).
Which also incidentally lower the perceivable jobless rate here.
And the interesting part is they will be merciless with the rental rates when the situation come to pass.
end Theory.
whatever you do, do with your eyes and minds open. Hv a gameplan and stick to it. Picking bottoms is not straightforward in equities and what more, ppty mkt. It's always b/w you and yourself and the mkt. Of cos, patience is a virtue but it doesn't mean mindless longsufferring.
mr wang,
we once stayed in an apartment with bedrooms all facing west. oh boy ! throughout the year we can literally feel the heat coming off the walls in the evenings. it also means we have to cool the bedroom down by turning on the a-con much earlier - leading to high utilities bill. breeze didn't help.
Mr Wang,
Learn some basic fengsui as well.
Should not face a T junction.
Should not be beside a canal.
Should not be blocked by taller building.
Should not face place of worship, hospital or foreign worker dorm.
Most importantly pray that you will have good neighbours.
Good luck house hunting.
talking abt fengshui - try to get a layout where the toilet faces bedroom. I dun like layouts with so much corridor passage space for the sake of privacy that the place is actually cramped. I call this poor space utilisation.
on the practical side, shd hv enough toilet/bathrooms. Sometimes a room is presented as if it is a bedroom when it is not really so and no where near the nearest bathroom.
sorry abt the toilet - typo. I obviously meant toilet SHOULD NOT face bedroom. I think for attached bathroom, try not place bed facing it too.
Kitchen layout shd be squarish. Hv a good yard space where store or maid room (if practical) is there, washing m/c is also there, one small toilet is there, and hanging clothes or extensible clothes hanger is well placed i.e. not gg to crowd out yard space. A nice ledge outside the yard is best.
Last but not least, hv a feel of the quality of finish. When u collect keys, you must do close inspection of the place to identify rectification works fast. E.g. how flat walls are , how straight corners are, how false ceilings adjoin walls etc. If marble floor, engage a polish job before moving in. A good polish job shd last at least 2 years. If u take care of the floor, it will last longer. Getting another polish job with furniture in the hse is a different proposition from when the hse is vacant.
Yr living room shd be wide enuf wall to wall where u might have a sofa and a TV. Reason: if r kids watch TV, dun penalise the eyes. If u r not into extensive overdone renovation and furnishing, start with some aesthetic idea of painting the walls of the rooms with different colors, meaning a feature wall of one color and the rest another color. It can be quite pleasant overall. U can easily engage a ICI consultant or something like that. That's why the wall finish must be good. I have 11 colors in the house. Colors will go with curtain choices, n furniture colors. If u dun mind, it's worth getting more expensive high quality curtains. They last too. Try ParkMall's Jesprit on the ground floor. (I am not related to them)
I asked about the North, South, East, West thing because I just viewed a project for a cluster house.
Everything is very pleasing and satisfactory to me, except the orientation ... the units probably get the west sun a lot.
The designer did try to place areas like kitchen, bathrooms etc in the part of the house that faces the west sun ...
Morning sun (east sun) is considered ok, right?
Mr Wang,
Yes, morning sun is good, it is much less hot and a bright start for the day.
Wang: "Morning sun (east sun) is considered ok, right?"
Validate by being there at different times of the day taking into account the time of the year. Consider which rooms would get the sun in the afternoon and evening. E.g. if rear side (yard, kitchen, non-master bedrooms) get morning sun, but front side (garden, driveway, living room, master bedroom) get the afternoon side; or vice versa.
That's the only way to satisfy yrself.
Cluster houses are landed with shared facilities, I presume. Is it 99 yr?
If it is landed and 99 year leasehold, my advice is not to get such properties unless the market has evolved to accept this. IMHO.
Ah, another thing, is it facing a hill slope? Beware of landslides!!!
Lives can be at stake!!!
Cluster house -> shared facilities -> swimming pool --> wat's maintenance like?
Thought u prided urself as a good banking lawyer before u switched into derivatives.
Project account rules and bank mortgage will mitigate that. Bank will try to get another developer to complete the project. Ur instalments into the peoject acc can be used only for certain purposes such as construction cost. That's one reason why u don't see as many half completed projects unlike in malaysia
About the sun: As long as the west sun does not face your bedrooms, which will make the walls unbearably hot at night. Otherwise it's always good for some direct sunlight to enter your home - your home will feel less damp, and of course sunlight is a natural disinfectant :)
I had bought my own place last year after years of house-hunting. What finally prompted me to make up my mind was that I felt very good the moment I stepped into the property.
The sun shines into my bedroom in the early morning and into my living room late afternoon. But it's not hot at all because of the breeze I get all day and the overhang roof that keeps the midday sun away.
Good or bad fengshui, I don't know, but one thing I do know - I love my home and feel very comfortable in it.
Although orientation might affect the selling price of a home, ultimately, if it is for staying in, then I feel the most important factor is that you feel at home in it.
Project account rules won't help you with the long delay before you can actually move into your property.
The cluster house I'm looking at is 999-year.
Actually there are two cluster houses I'm looking at - the second one is 999-year. The second one is fully constructed, but still has a few unsold units. However, I don't like these units ....
Cluster houses come with nice private parking space. Will be a waste if you don't drive. Or are you thinking of getting a car now? ;)
North-East facing would be ideal from the sunlight/heat aspect. North-West is a no-no if you belief in fengshui. In Chinese, eat North-West wind ( 吃 西 北 风 ) is real bad - as you will be so broke that you have nothing to eat, but the North-West wind...
999 yr - is ok. :)
There was a study done somewhere before or was it a report on URA website. It shows that the depreciation of 99 yr vs freehold ppties dun differ by much over the 1st 20/25 yrs or something like tat. Whatever it is, it is best not to get landed 99 yr leasehold - unproven mkt segment.
'feel at home' ... that is actually impt. Not sure if many subscribe:- if the kids feel at home, then it's fine.
It helps if you can check out the history of the land at the landed ppty site. Such as flood-prone or termite prone ???? Older projects tend to be structurally sounder (thicker walls and beams) but then you must be prepared to do some serious renovation.
"Or are you thinking of getting a car now? ;)"
Bought already. :) Coming next month.
COE very cheap, and next year I think Mrs Wang will be ferrying kids around to school, CCA, swimming lessons etc etc.
How come Mr Wang changed his mind about owning a car? A car is the worst investment ever in Spore. Low COE or not, still is.
I still won't be driving to work .... If I buy that penthouse, I will probably cycle every morning to the nearest MRT, then take the MRT.
The car is more for Mrs Wang (and the kids). Mrs Wang works only part-time, so most of the kid-ferrying activities would be done by her.
hi Mr Wang
I am also buying a house. If you're buying for home stay and the price for the unit you are interested in has dropped, I say go ahead. I been reading up a lot about what every 'expert' is saying. The waiting for 20% lower prices theory, the wait and see theory, the rush in and buy theory, etc. But where exactly is the bottom? Nobody seems to know and there is a lot of speculation going on in the market. The way I see it, after viewing so many developments, prices have already come down between 10-20%. Since i'm buying for home stay, it won't kill me to have the 'choice' selection I can have now and yet meet the prices halfway when it's sliding downwards. I would be careful about following mass sentiments.
Agree it is difficult to time the market.
I wonder what is the level of bank sale during the last recession compared to today?
If you are considering a terrace house, be it cluster development or not, pay a bit more for a corner unit. The intermediate ones are normally quite dark, to the extent that you may need to switch on the lights during the day. The only short coming is that when the time comes to to repaint the house, corner units cost more than intermediate ones because of the additional external walls.
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