The residential property market has been sinking, and I think it will sink some more. The patient house-hunter will be rewarded. I had previously written about the implications of the DPS, the effect of which should really start to show in a big way, around June 2009. In addition, today the media also has other news to suggest that the property market is in for a huge dive:
Grim forecast of 300,000 job lossesI kinda foresaw this coming. Three months ago, I wrote on this blog:
Most expected to beforeigners hired in past 5 years
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Ansley Ng, TODAY
IN what an expert called a “doomsday prediction”, two economists say Singapore may lose 300,000 jobs by next year, of which two-thirds would belong to foreigners.
As the Republic grapples with what is likely to be its worst recession, “recent surveys all point to many more firms planning to fire than hire, a finding backed by anecdotal reports of job cuts by leading firms in their sectors,” said economists Cem Karacadag and Kun Lung Wu of Credit Suisse Group in a report that has raised many eyebrows with its alarming forecast.
Credit Suisse had similarly drew attention last May when it issued a deeply bearish outlook for the Singapore property sector and while there was some initial scepticism, subsequent data have largely borne out the accuracy of its call.
But analysts Today spoke to — though agreeing that a higher-than-before number of jobs will be lost this year on the back of the increasingly grim economic outlook — felt that the Credit Suisse jobs report was too pessimistic. Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho said: “I think we have already seen the nature of the severity, I don’t think we will get much worse than that.”
Mr Leong predicted retrenchments to reach around 35,000, with the unemployment rate to peak at the second-quarter of this year at just over 5 per cent.
The Credit Suisse report gave a sectoral breakdown of its headline 300,000 number: About 160,000 positions will be shed in the services industry; 100,000 in manufacturing; and another 40,000 in the construction industry. “As harsh as our assumptions may seem, they only imply that the economy gives up all of the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007,” the Credit Suisse economists wrote.
Two out of three of the jobs lost would be held by foreigners and permanent residents. With the exodus of these foreigners, Singapore’s population will shrink 3.3 per cent to 4.68 million next year from 4.84 million now, said Credit Suisse.
Real estate experts say the property market — which has already been hit by the fallout of the global financial crisis — will be further buffeted by the repatriation of expatriates as companies downsize.
“The first market to be affected would be your residential and your prime residential market, because an immense source of leasing activity comes from foreigners,” said Mr Donald Han, managing director of property consulting firm Cushman and Wakefield ....
According to my crystal ball, residential rentals must fall sharply this year. A host of new, big residential projects (all of which were launched in the recent bubbly years), will get completed soon. What happens next? The market will be flooded. At the same time, due to the economic slowdown, many expats might predictably pack their bags and go home. This would lead to a further collapse in residential rentals.Of course, none of the above was particularly difficult to foresee, even three months ago. What's staggering about the Today report is the size of the figure - 300,000 jobs - predicted by Credit Suisse.
The stock market has also crashed very badly. Many Singaporeans would have lost serious money. Bonuses will shrink. Thus many potential property buyers would be eliminated. Furthermore, a real recession is very likely to be on the way (the technical one is already here). Some people will lose their jobs. And among them, the highly-leveraged home-buyers of the past few years will be blown apart.
How quickly the residential property market will collapse will actually depend on the proportions of expats in Singapore who are on an Employment Pass, and on a Special Employment Pass. What's the difference?
Both passes enable the expat to reside legally in Singapore. However, an Employment Pass is tied to a specific employer. If the expat loses his job, the EP becomes invalid and the expat has to leave Singapore more or less immediately (7 days, to be precise). His family has to leave with him too.
A Personalised Employer Pass affords more flexibility. The PEP is not tied to a specific employer. If the expat loses his job, he can stay for up to another six months in Singapore to look for another job.
PEP was introduced only in January 2007. It was one of those "we embrace foreign talent" schemes. Most expats who had come to Singapore prior to January 2007 are probably on the EP, not the PEP, unless they had had the foresight to effect a conversion of their EP to a PEP earlier on (I'm assuming that there's some procedure to do this).
Of course this is precisely the kind of precautionary step that most human beings don't bother to take, when times are still good. An EP is as good as a PEP, when job security is not in doubt. But now, when times are bad and unemployment is rearing its ugly head, the government will not be so free and easy with EP-to-PEP conversions.
As for myself, I am being prudent by deferring my property purchase. After all, I work in a bank, not exactly the safest place to be, nowadays. I have fairly substantial back-up funds, but still ....
45 comments:
As horrible as this sounds, after a few years of being gouged by greedy landlords I for one am looking forward to the cheaper rents that we are starting to see and that I hope will further fall.
Especially for June, when my current lease expires and I am in the market for a move and a new landlord.
Dear Mr Wang,
While it is true that most of my foreign colleagues in the Singapore are on the EP, it is relatively easier for them to go to get a holiday visa of 3 months if their EP expires. They could go to KL for a day or two, return to Singapore and have a 3 month extension to stay in Singapore.
Happy house hunting,
Eaststopper
All subject to change. In bad times, the Singapore government might well get much stricter on such matters. Remember:
(1) each retrenched expat in Singapore is competing with each retrenched Singaporean for the same limited number of jobs;
(2) the retrenched expat has a home country to return to; the retrenched Singaporean's home country is here;
(3) what's the easiest way to keep your unemployment figures looking less ugly? Get the retrenched expat out fast.
Agreed on your earlier comment. And I guess the expats want out as quickly as possible as well. Though the switch to a holiday visa is an attempt to make the transition a little less abrupt.
Speaking of returning to home country, I am actually leaving the UK/Europe and heading back to sunny Singapore shores. Well, at the very least, the Singapore skies do look a tad less gloomy than here in Europe.
Am too in the process of looking for a place to stay/rent.
Best regards,
Eaststopper
Looks like it will be a case of musical chairs - expats returning to their home countries, overseas Singaporeans coming back.
If that is the case, the fall in demand for rental properties may be less severe but jobless rate may not improve much even after the exodus of these foreigners.
I don't think a retrenched expat is a competitor to a Spore worker because he would have to leave if he's without a job here. But it's some fellow Spore employers who have a bias to recruit foreigners for reasons they know best!~ Harvey Viva
Wang, you miss out on one very very important group of players in the property market.
They were "unmasked" just a couple of days ago. The young ones - early to mid-thirties have been earning SGD3oo,ooo+++ a year, while the senior ones, SGD1million +++ excluding bonus, a year.
They would have, undoubtly, left a good amount of their overly excessive salaries in properties. Now that their salaries have shrunk by 20%, plus having top top up the falling valuation, I wonder how many of them will be quietly counselled, and the press silenced.
Eh Wang, you sure or not? Make it harder for EP to convert to PEP? You got fever is it?
Foreigners are here to create jobs for us! If you let them go, we will not have jobs and our mothers will become maids in foreign countries!
During these difficult times, all the more we must import foreign unemployment and failures! Otherwise, how to explain Singaporeans no jobs! Must always find excuse say "You cannot compete" instead of "employers face high rentals (you know pay who lah), eletrical and water bills and they are human enough to not cut your salaries more, though we recommend it."
Must bring in more foreigners!
Especially those who tell Singapore FTrash policy is damn good! But in their own country, they want more screening and VISA restrictions against foreigners, like Singaporeans, wanting to working in their country!
You know those Hong Kong call them "Failed In London, Trying Hongkong" - FILTH. Now they are Failed in London, Trying Hongkong, Singapore! FILTHS!
Mr Wang,
these are dire times, I doubt unemployment figures will be a problem. In fact, the higher the better, since they wont be taking any blame now, but when the world economy recovers, they will have a lot of room to improve. Then, they can say they are creating miracles again and justify another big fat pay hike.
It is just politcal sugarcoating when "analysts" says foreigners will be retrenched ahead of Singaporeans. Because of Employer's CPF, every single citizen and PR has a higher risk of getting retrenched, all else being equal.
Meanwhile, the same foreigner can tolerate a steeper pay cut since there is little or no Employee CPF contribution.
And needless to say, foreigners will be hired ahead of Singapore citizens and PRs.
Especially in a lean and mean environment, who wants to hire people who will disappear for weeks for NS or delivering babies?
Not to mention, most people underestimate how important the property market is to PAP's power structure. Even jobless people will need a place to stay, and so keeping the EP foreigners for as long as possible can cushion the impact on the rental market.
Last but not least, Singapore cannot afford to gain a reputation of screwing the foreigners, because Singapore now rely on a permagrowth of the foreigner population to grow the GDP.
So, Singaporeans will continued to be screwed.
Dont be surprised if the government offers as much aid to the foreigners as the citizens to keep them rooted here, in the upcoming budget.
It's not like the Singapore Government will sit there and do nothing.
300,000 job losses? Some news reported it as 200,000 only. Since this is talking about foreigners and PRs, Singaporeans should breathe easier. :)
So much is said about the budget not being a normal budget that I became curious. What would make it not a normal budget?
mr wang very informative about different passes, u described about e pass, personalised e pass, but what about special e pass?
The residential property market including the HDB resale market is heading for a big fall in 2009. The many assertions by economists that 2010 will be a recovery year is IMO a tat over optimistic when there is zero sign to suggest bottoming. Avoid stocks and properties for now. The smart investors are getting the hell out, not in.
Looks like the perfect storm is brewing for the Singapore economy. The economists at the MAS/MTI, even if they are cognizant, are unlikely to put up a realistic forecast for fear of panicking the people. The private sector economists are too polite or too kiasu to go against the official forecast.
Let me, a non-economist, cast the first stone and stone the first cast-in-stone forecast.
The composition of Singapore's GDP (2007) are as follows:
Manufacturing 23.7%
Financial & Biz Services 24.6%
Wholesale & Retail Trade 16.0%
These 3 sectors alone account for some 64.3% of Singapore's economy.
Given the global financial tsunami and contraction in trade, it is realistic to assume a contraction of 15% in these sectors, which means GDP shrinking by 9.6%. Assuming a more conservative contraction of 10% for the 3 sectors, GDP will shrink by 6.4%.
So, my quick and dirty forecast for Singapore's 2009 GDP growth - a decline of 6.4% to 9.6%. Let's take the mid point -- minus 8.0% GDP growth for 2009.
And the official MTI forecasters are still mucking around -2% to +1% growth for 2009.
You heard it here first - from a non-economist.
20 January, 2009 15:59
P/S - the above was written before the government revised its forecast (within 3 weeks of the previous one) to -2% to -5%.
I think they are still pussyfooting with their forecasts - my amateurish forecast is -8%.
There's a bit of irony that the Barclays' economist is sounding so optimistic - that financial institution is currently in deep trouble and that economist might soon find himself (herself?) out of a job all of a (not so) sudden.
Good riddance to these foreign Aliens. Time to reclaim Singapore for Singaporeans!
Hurray! soon, I will not feel I am in some small city in the PRC.
Cordon Tan
Hopefully, they all balek kampong.
What if they lurk around, pak si mai chao?
First they cook up scams to cheat for a living, then they whore themselves in Geylang and finally,not happy ... torch everyone in sight.
300,000 is a scary number of people loitering in the streets.
Paragraph 19 of Obama's Inaugural Speech...
/// Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. ///
Are they really asking companies to retrench foreigners first?
If as much as 200,000 to 300,000 are going to loose their jobs, most of whom are expected to be foreigners, isn't that bad for Singapore, since the argument has always been that foreigners are helping to create most of the jobs for Singaporeans. Someone will have to rewrite the lyrics for a new song soon.
Lost Citizen
I would prefer to use income approach to estimate GDP (2009)and my estimate is GDP(1st april 2009 to 31st Mrach 2010)is more than -10%
based on an estimated 300,000 workers being sacked and the estimate of reduction in all other factors(corporate profit)etc
I believe that most of the 300,000 are Spore citizens as they are more exopensive and PAP has given up its control/leverage over this vital issue.
I use 1st April as I believe that the big retrenchment would start after CNY.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product - 96k
The formula for GDP measured using the income approach, called GDP(I), is:
GDP = Compensation of employees + Gross operating surplus + Gross mixed income + Taxes less subsidies on production and imports
Compensation of employees (COE) measures the total remuneration to employees for work done. It includes wages and salaries, as well as employer contributions to social security and other such programs.
Gross operating surplus (GOS) is the surplus due to owners of incorporated businesses. Often called profits, although only a subset of total costs are subtracted from gross output to calculate GOS.
Gross mixed income (GMI) is the same measure as GOS, but for unincorporated businesses. This often includes most small businesses.
sg economy is parasitic. its feeds off foreign currencies/investemnts and talents.inother words, when they come here, many people, including our poor, suck their blood and they in turn, hope to suck our blood.
by pulling out, for whatever reasons, the poor and average individulas/families suffer most because of lost of jobs and revenues.
hitting the property market is tantamount to hitting or bombing someones homes - including the poor
and herein lies the idiocies and hypocrisies of the blogging community.
Mr Wang,
DOS has just calculated that the latest monthly wage in Spore is S$2,500.00,so if 300,000 get the walking tickets,straight away 4% off the GDP,should be more as of the remaining employees,many are getting up to 30% wage reduction.
Traditionally,corpoare profit accounts for close to 50% of our GDP,and under averge recession,corporate profit should decline by 20%,this round the decline should definitely be much higher.
Even a 20% reduction means another 10% drop in GDP.
Minister Tharman & PM Lee have both grossly under estimated the seriousness of the current situation.
Note that of the world class countries,Spore is the only one with corporate accounts so much of GDP,this is the killing stick for uniquly red dot,and no other world calss country would have such huge loss of jobs.
I bet that more peanuts would be required after the June quarter.
With the projected paper loss of Spore Inc,this is going to be a very nasty picture for MM lee during the last leg of his legacy.
One comment rejected for excessive use of expletives.
The poster is welcome to resubmit his views, after removing the thirteen F words.
"Are they really asking companies to retrench foreigners first?"
The government can ask companies whatever the government wants to ask. The effect is limited because it's all just moral suasion.
The estimation of proportion of jobs lost by foreigners / citizens is probably just based on:
(1) the proportion of foreigners / citizens working in particular sectors, and
(2) the type and number of jobs expected to be lost in those sectors.
Although we will forsee more foreign expats or PRs being retrenched, Singaporeans might not necessarily breathe easier especially for graduating students.
PRs invites will continue to be extended to international students pursuing their education in local institutes of higher learning. The foreign students (comprising mainly from India and China) will be a competitive force against local graduates since most wouldn't mind securing a lower salary for start just to secure their PR status in Singapore.
Singapore has no agriculture or natural resource sector, or serving a rich hinterland. Just a little red dot of 700 sq km with 4.5 million folks squatting on it.
Hence the domestic economy is also small and due to the wide income gap much wealth is concentratd only in a handful.
In fact KL and the suburbs (known as the Klang valley in Malaysia) is bigger and has more people.
Come to think of it, that red dot can survive, grow and prosper is already quite a feat.
But this is totally dependent on the global business climate. When this turns sour on a broad scale as of now, red dot can be doomed.
Hence things can be quite scary for red dot now and in the future.
Anyone here remember 1982? I was a child then and I recalled eating porridge with soy sauce for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Maybe that explains why I grew up somewhat dense.
Well it's going to get as bad as that. I haven't met or spoken to anyone in banking and finance, who can envision or imagine the new face of the economy. But they are all sure that its not going to be business as usual.
Singapore is mainly finance services driven so she will be very hard hit, not unlike the UK. However, the tsunami hasn't really hit Singapore & Asia yet. Now's just the 'bad news' bit. The fallout will be very, very deep. In order to survive, everyone will need to learn to adapt to this 'new economy'. The old dynamics no longer applies.
The only thing in the budget interesting to me was the job credit. It's a pleasant surprise from this foreign talent loving government. But it's also an affirmation of my concern that CPF is a major liability for Singaporeans. Furthermore, it may cost a lot of money but it still does not fully eliminate the CPF "tax" on the employer.
Given two identical apples, one costs 1 dollar and the other $1.20, even if you give a 10 cent rebate, the latter is still more expensive.
To keep our jobs, Singaporeans cannot afford to be just as good as the 1 million foreigners in Singapore; we need to be better.
Be prepared to hear the chorus of employers and lap dogs singing insults at jobless Singaporeans for being "lazy", not as hardworking at our jobs, not diligent in our upgrading, as the foreigners.
Because openly fingering the CPF, putting property market at risk, is an inconvenient truth that nobody wants to talk about.
One other missed opportunity, is that the government should offer to foot all four months of working mother's maternity leave. There's no better way of ensuring domestic spending than having a child.
But as anybody who knows our Machiavellian government should expect, the good news would only be served in drips.
I have fairly substantial back-up funds, but still ....
How is it that someone who belongs to the upper 10% of the pecking order still feel insecure? That's mind-boggling.
Porridge and soy sauce? Aiyoh, poor thing. There is a better alternative and just as cheap - potatoes. They are more nutritious and delicious, I discovered while racking my brains to save money.
You will certainly become more dense, with nutrients :D
Anonymous January 23, 2009 1:32 PM said...
"Singapore has no agriculture or natural resource sector, or serving a rich hinterland. Just a little red dot of 700 sq km with 4.5 million folks squatting on it.
Hence the domestic economy is also small and due to the wide income gap much wealth is concentratd only in a handful.
In fact KL and the suburbs (known as the Klang valley in Malaysia) is bigger and has more people.
Come to think of it, that red dot can survive, grow and prosper is already quite a feat.
But this is totally dependent on the global business climate. When this turns sour on a broad scale as of now, red dot can be doomed.
Hence things can be quite scary for red dot now and in the future."
So why, if we are so dependent on the business climate, our PAP masters gave themselves a pat on the back and tell everyone it was because of their good governance? When the Singapore economy was doing well, was that not because the global business climate was also good? Was that also not the reason why they increase their bloated salaries and bonuses.
Now that our economy is on the downward spiral, the blame is on the external factors. In other words, when good things happened, it was because of them and when bad things happened, it was because of external factors. Is that logical?
Sorry,Jimmy Mun
"To keep our jobs, Singaporeans cannot afford to be just as good as the 1 million foreigners in Singapore; we need to be better."
You got confused by PAP propaganda yet again.
It is not 1 million,it is,in fact,1.7 million foreigners,pl do not forget the 700k residents are holding Non -Singapore passports,they do not love PAP as much as PAP loves them,that is for sure.
We have to be very careful when we read figures released by PAP,they are accurate but they also serve to confuse,most of the time.
"How is it that someone who belongs to the upper 10% of the pecking order still feel insecure?"
Thats because most of the wealth here is concentrated in the top ONE percent. Top 10% is nothing.
Even the smug Mr Wang is feeling insecure ...
Welcome to the club. But dun worry, hyper-inflation is now unlikely and ur funds should stretch.
But we are ALL going to lose a few years of our prime.
Yeh don't forget our uniformed guardians during this festive occasion as Singaporeans merrily partake in food & drinks.
They make the peace possible for us all to enjoy Chinese New Year.
Remember the Israeli festive Yom Kippur when the enemies suddenly swept into Israel and took the country by surprise. Many lives were unnecessarily lost.
Every country ought to learn from it. Enemies usually like to catch its prey unprepared.
During this period, superiors/ commanders ought to take time and show solidarity with his men by visiting them at camps & checkpoints and offer them the traditional oranges and greetings. They don't cost much. They are indeed not forgotten. The cookhouses at the various camps where soldiers are on standby shd receive special meals.
My friends, not that it is any of your business, but you do underestimate my income. I am most definitely not just in the top 10%. ;)
If you are curious to know where you stand, these are some links you can check out:
By annual salary
By household income
Happy New Year!
So many 'foreign talents' in Sg now that it makes me wonder what ARE our Singaporeans working as? Even the bus drivers are from China now. So what are our uncles and aunties working as for livelihood? Even in the food & beverage line, there is an influx of 'foreign talents'.
So this so-called massive job losses in question, is it purely that or are we losing our jobs to 'foreign talents'?
Thanks for the far-sightedness. Thanks for building up the Reserves.
This global downturn has swallowed already up its first casualty, Iceland. Agriculture is definitely not on the cards for Iceland. More countries will invariable fall.
It's s scary if external demand is not there. This little, resourceless, red dot must export its goods and services to survive. To derive the income to pay for all its basic imports like fuel, food, etc.
How long will and can the Reserves last?
Any guess?
Foreign labor is an integral part of Singapore. Private businesses have to lower costs and labor is a FACTOR of production, like it or not.
Bad times have driven the Banglas out of the food courts and hawker centers. Singaporean oldies are more realistic today. They accept the same wages as the Banglas and local contract employers use them even though they are slower and absent themselves more frequently cos they are Singaporeans.
The thousands of Indians building roads, at the shipyards, etc., and Chinese nationals aren't oldies. They won't be here if young Singaporeans are prepared to do the job and their wages.
Unless one is the employer also trying to make a living you won't understand the dynamics of real economics.
To the critic I say go and be an employer, a contractor, etc. Tender for the job and get it done without foreign workers.
Empty vessels make the most noise. Go back to school . . . .
"This global downturn has swallowed already up its first casualty, Iceland."
You speak like Iceland was swallowed by a black hole, never to be seen again.
The truth is, even in these darkest hours, the 300,000 Icelanders are still living a better life than the poorest 300,000 Singaporeans at any time in our "golden age".
The only thing in the budget interesting to me was the job credit.
Hahahahahahaha the job credit to CPF is for "Singaporeans". Get an inkling, Singapore PRs, people who do not hold red passport also contribute CPF! And basically any tom dicky and harry can be a Sinigapore PR very easily! Our dear gahmen is again playing the game of confusing us, when they are in fact subsidising foreigners!
Dear Mr Wang
My point precisely.
Top 10% is nothing.
You should be fairly close to the 5% mark but even then its still nothing. There is a sizeable gap between 5% and 1%.
"Mere rich" is roughly defined as min of USD$5 to 25 million nett liquid assets ... unless u married rich ...
Just kapo. oh man. waiting for the axe is really mentally painful.
"To the critic I say go and be an employer, a contractor, etc. Tender for the job and get it done without foreign workers.
Empty vessels make the most noise. Go back to school . . . ."
eh, we pay taxes and elect a government for a purpose. U know like "creating jobs, protecting livelihood" etc. Also foreign worker levies\work permits exist for a reason. No one says the gahmen job is easy but we do pay them very well.
PS: you may wish to know that unfettered capitalism (for better or worst) is gone with President Bush.
"Unless one is the employer also trying to make a living you won't understand the dynamics of real economics."
Ya loh. Just like you said, Singaporeans deserve to be paid like banglas and worked like the banglas for electing a gahmen who allows the employer to stay in bungalows and drive BMWs, plus go to Paris to learn cooking, but cannot afford to pay for Singaporean workers.
How come you understand only ONE part of costs? My business bills tells me that my rental has gone up 30% last year. And the market so kns oligopolistic, it is not very possible to go elsewhere find rent.
My electricity and water bills also got whack damn bad. All these how?
You damn good employer leh.
You must be the bestest businessman on Earth. No wonder our contractors and SMEs almost never make it to world stage.
To Anon
January 28, 2009 6:53 PM
Like Gopal you have a free choice leh. After all Singapore is an immigrant society. Life would be much better back in your ancestral homeland, be it Indonesia, India or China. No one is holding you back leh.
This is democracy leh. By the people (67% of popular votes) & for the people.
Do your health a lot of good if you stop complaining and whining.
Singapore will be better off without you leh.
So much for original thinking from our million dollar ministers and team.
http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2009/02/truth-about-jobs-credit.html/
I have no delusions about the Jobs Credit. There's no reason to believe it will create jobs. At best, it might slow down employers singling out Singapore citizens and PRs to retrench first, and that's all one should expect.
To Anon
January 29, 2009 10:56 PM
You think our gahmen is democractic ??? No wonder 67% of morons voted for them !
Singapore will be better without people who think like you !
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