tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post3607284407161621395..comments2024-03-19T18:44:15.041+08:00Comments on Little Stories: Thoughts, Reality And the World of FinanceGilbert Koh aka Mr Wanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01027678080233274309noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-639650610345427232007-06-28T08:29:00.000+08:002007-06-28T08:29:00.000+08:00Mr Wang wrote in part:"Rare investors such as Warr...Mr Wang wrote in part:<BR/><BR/>"Rare investors such as Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch are able to consistently perceive the karmic conditions of the investing universe."<BR/>___________________<BR/><BR/>What are they perceiving if not signs/signals/patterns which exist in the seeming chaos of the markets.<BR/><BR/>There is a method to the madness!<BR/><BR/>Isn't that what I already said?<BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-137864749850160312007-06-28T08:06:00.000+08:002007-06-28T08:06:00.000+08:00Jason wrote in part:"He also shies away from high ...Jason wrote in part:<BR/><BR/>"He also shies away from high volatility stuff, thereby minimizing his downside risk (e.g. he deliberately declined to participate in the dot-com boom, and so escaped the bust)."<BR/>__________________<BR/><BR/>Buffet stays away from businesses he does not understand which included the IT/Dot.com companies, not so much that he avoids high volatility stuff. <BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-16768381674127493612007-06-28T07:59:00.000+08:002007-06-28T07:59:00.000+08:00Mr wrote in part:"Rare investors such as Warren Bu...Mr wrote in part:<BR/><BR/>"Rare investors such as Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch have gained a specific kind of enlightenment, related to the finance world, and are therefore able to consistently perceive the karmic conditions of the investing universe.<BR/><BR/>... However, they are unable to do so consistently,"<BR/><BR/>__________________<BR/><BR/>Able to *consistently* perceive but unable to *consistently* do ...???<BR/><BR/>Hmmmm...<BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-62890329603631251642007-06-27T22:19:00.000+08:002007-06-27T22:19:00.000+08:00Jason said:"My point is, once you factor in that h...Jason said:<BR/><BR/>"My point is, once you factor in that he blows up a few times in spectacular fashion every now and then - to the extent of having to mortgage his house and borrow money from his children - the guy may be no better than any typical trader. Indeed he could be worse!<BR/><BR/>So his advice may be spurious.<BR/>________________<BR/><BR/>Nierderhoffer is anything but typical! A genius, scholar and super trader, his market insights remain gems and valid regardless of his circumstances.<BR/><BR/>He is a bit of an anathema as far as super traders go. He flies without a net as he doesn't believe in *stops*. The "second" black swan on 9/11 finished him I think.<BR/><BR/>He is probably a "ghost" by now.<BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-63344509426660126722007-06-27T21:58:00.000+08:002007-06-27T21:58:00.000+08:00I am not sure what your point is.My point is, once...<B>I am not sure what your point is.</B><BR/><BR/>My point is, once you factor in that he blows up a few times in spectacular fashion every now and then - to the extent of having to mortgage his house and borrow money from his children - the guy may be no better than any typical trader. Indeed he could be worse! <BR/><BR/>So his advice may be spurious.<BR/><BR/>As for Buffett, it is important to remember that he isn't just a stock market guy. He's also into management on a limited but important basis. When he buys companies, he helps to pick their CEOs, and taps their excess cashflow. A lot of the companies owned by Berkshire Hathaway are not even listed. He also shies away from high volatility stuff, thereby minimizing his downside risk (e.g. he deliberately declined to participate in the dot-com boom, and so escaped the bust).Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832764148182969619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-6702439991339395102007-06-26T12:33:00.000+08:002007-06-26T12:33:00.000+08:00Mr Wang said:"This is akin to saying that sometime...Mr Wang said:<BR/><BR/>"This is akin to saying that sometimes the universe splits into separate realities. At other times, consciousness will sustain the universe and it need not split. At yet other times, it is possible for a subatomic particle swirling in my brain to instantly affect a bunch of subatomic particles swirling in the brain of someone else on the other side of the planet."<BR/>___________________<BR/><BR/>You appear to associate and distill everything in terms of QM or "thought theories."<BR/><BR/>Is this obsessional *belief* reality or illusion? :-)<BR/><BR/>If the markets are truly random, only luck would account for winners emerging.<BR/><BR/>The consistency of super traders like Nierderhoffer or Gil Blake and many others would appear to negate that theory. Of course you can stick to the theory despite the evidence indicating otherwise.<BR/><BR/>As a particular compelling example, consider Blake's 25:1 ratio of winning to losing months and his average annual returns of 45 percent returns compared to the worst drawdown of only 5 percent. Or as Neirderhoffer offers ... spare parts in an automative yard can spontaneously assemble themselves into a McDonald's restaurant. <BR/><BR/>The logical conclusion has to be that there must be a method to the chaos and madness of the markets. <BR/><BR/>Those like Monroe Trout would say of Random Walk, "That's why they are professors and why I'm making money doing what I am doing."<BR/><BR/>PZPZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14186485843419903935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-6829607991643842652007-06-26T11:47:00.000+08:002007-06-26T11:47:00.000+08:00Jason said..."All of Niederhoffer's genius did not...Jason said...<BR/><BR/>"All of Niederhoffer's genius did not prevent him from blowing up in spectacular fashion in 1997 and 2001. What is to say he won't blow up again?"<BR/>_____________<BR/><BR/>Yes I do know his fund went belly up after 15 spectacular years.<BR/><BR/>I am not aware if Nierderhoffer had another resurrection or is still trading since 1997.<BR/><BR/>I am not sure what your point is.<BR/><BR/>PZPZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14186485843419903935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-10452022716453904102007-06-26T11:46:00.000+08:002007-06-26T11:46:00.000+08:00"My take, is that the Random Walk Theory is partia...<B>"My take, is that the Random Walk Theory is partially correct. The price action in markets are mostly random but there are times (when inefficiencies exist and are exploited) when it then becomes predictable with a great deal of certainty."</B><BR/><BR/>You could be right.<BR/><BR/>This is akin to saying that sometimes the universe splits into separate realities. At other times, consciousness will sustain the universe and it need not split. At yet other times, it is possible for a subatomic particle swirling in my brain to instantly affect a bunch of subatomic particles swirling in the brain of someone else on the other side of the planet.<BR/><BR/>Mr Wang would explain your explanation as follows:<BR/><BR/><B>"PZ's theory assumes that the present reality of a share's price is <I>usually</I> shaped by the:<BR/><BR/>(1) all the available information, past & present, in the universe about that share; and<BR/><BR/>(2) all the thoughts, opinions, guesses, conclusions, views, hopes and fears that every investor has ever had about that share.<BR/><BR/>Occasionally, however, a few investors may briefly escape the karmic cycle, transcend the illusion of reality, and see the karmic conditions of the finance world. Exploiting this knowledge, they make a lot of money. However, they are unable to do so consistently, and that is why almost no fund manager manages to beat the index benchmark over the long term.<BR/><BR/>Rare investors such as Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch have gained a specific kind of enlightenment, related to the finance world, and are therefore able to consistently perceive the karmic conditions of the investing universe. Exploiting this ability, Warren & Peter defy the EM hypothesis, which only applies to ordinary human beings."</B>Gilbert Koh aka Mr Wanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027678080233274309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-12418535490319409002007-06-26T10:47:00.000+08:002007-06-26T10:47:00.000+08:00All of Niederhoffer's genius did not prevent him f...All of Niederhoffer's genius did not prevent him from blowing up in spectacular fashion in 1997 and 2001. What is to say he won't blow up again?<BR/><BR/>"A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the odds of the market going down so heavily that he would be wiped out were minuscule, and Taleb listening and shaking his head, and thinking about black swans. "I was depressed when I left him," Taleb said. "Here is a guy who goes out and hits a thousand backhands. He plays chess like his life depends on it. Here is a guy who, whatever he wants to do when he wakes up in the morning, he ends up better than anyone else. Whatever he wakes up in the morning and decides to do, he did better than anyone else. I was talking to my hero . . ." This was the reason Taleb didn't want to be Niederhoffer when Niederhoffer was at his height -- the reason he didn't want the silver and the house and the tennis matches with George Soros. He could see all too clearly where it all might end up."<BR/><BR/>http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htmJasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832764148182969619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-69261791746117027732007-06-25T21:44:00.000+08:002007-06-25T21:44:00.000+08:00Mr Wang wrote in part:"Peculiarly, theories like E...Mr Wang wrote in part:<BR/><BR/>"Peculiarly, theories like EMH cannot account for the existence of people like Warren Buffett. Taken to its logical conclusion,...<BR/>_____________<BR/><BR/>You left out another logical if not OBVIOUS conclusion .. it's time to junk this theory? Nein? <BR/><BR/>My take, is that the Random Walk Theory is partially correct. The price action in markets are mostly random but there are times (when inefficiencies exist and are exploited) when it then becomes predictable with a great deal of certainty. The traders who are able to exploit these first, are those who stay ahead of the curve. By the time other lesser mortals notice these, it's all over folks.<BR/><BR/>"I trade strictly based on statistical "anomalies," the analysis of of multivariate time series and the quantifications of persistent psychological biases.<BR/><BR/>In statistical terms, I figure I have traded about 2 million contracts in my life thus far, with an average profit of USD$70 per contract(after slippage of perhaps USD$20) <BR/><BR/>This average profit is approximately 700 standard deviation away from randomness, a departure that would occur by chance alone about as frequently as the spare parts in an automotive salvage lot might spontaneously assemble themselves into a McDonalds restaurant." - Victor Nierderhoffer <BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-63811321031080755822007-06-25T20:48:00.000+08:002007-06-25T20:48:00.000+08:00Mr Wang wrote in part:"However he probably has a v...Mr Wang wrote in part:<BR/><BR/>"However he probably has a very, very strong belief that by his own usual analytical & research methods (whatever they are), if given the usual available data,<BR/><BR/>.....Because he has such a overwhelmingly strong belief in this (so my hypothesis would go), Buffett WOULD be able to get those superior returns that he believes he can get,.."<BR/>_______________<BR/><BR/>I do not doubt the power of positive thinking or "thought theories" and the infinite possibilities that the mind can perhaps achieve. "We shall see Archie ... we shall see.":-) <BR/><BR/>However, nowhere in your hypothesis did you account for a key variable *X*, that is behind the genial looks and folksy persona of Warren Buffet - his formidable intellect - not to mention his skill-set (whatever these may be), experience and insight/wisdom peculiar to this very special individual. As are other super traders/speculators like Druckenmiller, Lipschutz or Soros and their ilk.<BR/><BR/>If your hypothesis is correct, you only need to pluck ordinary trader Joe Tan Ah Kow from some bank in Shenton Way, arm him well with mindhacking and set him loose in the financial markets and, "Look world .... herreeee is Soros!"<BR/><BR/>Methink not.<BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-4067541561002011012007-06-25T18:46:00.000+08:002007-06-25T18:46:00.000+08:00"Forget the cheeks then, think about the tongue"We..."Forget the cheeks then, think about the tongue"<BR/><BR/>Well, there are also tongue studs. And then there's the 'Prince Albert'. :)<BR/><BR/>I think basically, 'if you can pinch it, you can pierce it'.<BR/><BR/>But never mind the 'thought create reality' bit; I am more interested in what moral imperative it translates to for you.angry dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03132410467147982699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-81550097143379601122007-06-25T18:15:00.000+08:002007-06-25T18:15:00.000+08:00I can't access the pix, my office server has banne...I can't access the pix, my office server has banned it for "Adult Content". What kind of site is your link to, LOL.<BR/><BR/>Forget the cheeks then, think about the tongue. Isn't the tongue richly supplied with blood vessels - shouldn't there be a lot of blood if you pierce it at one side and the rod comes out at the other side?<BR/><BR/>---<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I will have more interesting things to say in future posts, about "thoughts affecting reality". <BR/><BR/>Like the EM hypothesis, the theory has its "strong form", "semi-strong" form and "weak" form.<BR/><BR/>So don't worry, be patient ... take your time to discuss.<BR/><BR/>Hey, would you like to read about a scientific study indicating that you could think your pets into becoming smarter? Hehehe. Maybe I'll make that my next post.Gilbert Koh aka Mr Wanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027678080233274309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-48140837255649422432007-06-25T18:06:00.000+08:002007-06-25T18:06:00.000+08:00Here's a couple of pictures:http://wiki.bmezine.co...Here's a couple of pictures:<BR/><BR/>http://wiki.bmezine.com/index.php/Cheek_Piercingangry dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03132410467147982699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-71034482150153781982007-06-25T18:05:00.000+08:002007-06-25T18:05:00.000+08:00Like I said earlier, cheek-piercing is also done c...Like I said earlier, cheek-piercing is also done cosmetically and not typically associated with much pain, bleeding, or infection.<BR/><BR/>"The belief is key, and the stronger the belief, the more powerfully it will change reality (eg to the extent it changes the way your body bleeds or does not bleed)."<BR/><BR/>This we cannot prove scientifically, unless there is a way to measure the 'strength' of the belief without looking at the outcome; otherwise we can simply 'prove' this theory by calling all those who can effect change as having 'strong belief', and those who cannot as those without 'strong belief'.angry dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03132410467147982699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-88403169748249066982007-06-25T17:45:00.000+08:002007-06-25T17:45:00.000+08:00This doesn't work - there are some inherent flaws,...This doesn't work - there are some inherent flaws, as per many of the prayer experiments.<BR/><BR/>The first principle in these "thought theories" is that you generally have to strongly believe in what you're thinking (there are ways to get around this, but I'll discuss them next time).<BR/><BR/>Eg the Thaipusam example. These people strongly believe in certain gods, they strongly believe in certain purification rituals, prayers etc,<BR/><BR/>and they believe that if they do these rituals/prayers etc, then during the festival, they can pierce metal skewers, hooks etc through their cheeks, backs, tongue, arms etc and NOT bleed and NOT scar and NOT feel pain.<BR/><BR/>Due to their strong belief, this turns out to be true. Thy do not bleed, scar or feel pain. Year after year, for decades, there are all these devotees, yet you do not ever see them walking around Singapore on other days with huge scars or gaping holes or bandages where their cheeks should be.<BR/><BR/>At the festival preparatory stage, you, Angry Doc, can certainly go through the same physical motions as these devotees (chanting prayers, fasting etc). But if you do not actually believe in the religion the way they do, with that kind of ferventness and faith,<BR/><BR/>well, certainly you can pierce your cheeks with a metal skewer,<BR/><BR/> but I fully expect you to scream in pain, bleed, scar, have two permanent holes in your cheeks, and go to hospital.<BR/><BR/><BR/>The <I>belief</I> is key, and the stronger the belief, the more powerfully it will change reality (eg to the extent it changes the way your body bleeds or does not bleed). Whether those particular gods are real or not is not the point. <BR/><BR/>-------<BR/><BR/>Now, Buffett probably does not believe that he can "magically" affect reality with his thoughts, in the sense that you give him codes etc, he can blindly influence stocks, as you have described.<BR/><BR/>Since he does not believe this, he can't do it.<BR/><BR/>However he probably has a very, very strong belief that by his own usual analytical & research methods (whatever they are), if given the usual available data, <BR/><BR/>he can pick stocks and consistently generate returns far, far higher than the market return.<BR/>Because he has such a overwhelmingly strong belief in this (so my hypothesis would go), Buffett WOULD be able to get those superior returns that he believes he can get, and in the process, he would affect the share prices.<BR/><BR/>This is DESPITE the fact that according to the EM hypothesis, NO investor ought to be able to get that kind of consistently superior return, over such a long, long time.Gilbert Koh aka Mr Wanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027678080233274309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-86557822435324698582007-06-25T16:37:00.000+08:002007-06-25T16:37:00.000+08:00"To Angry Doc:It is true that Buffett can shift th..."To Angry Doc:<BR/><BR/>It is true that Buffett can shift the market - stocks have had big moves when it is revealed (through filings or other public statements) that his fund has bought/sold. ... As for his thoughts, it's impossible to test as only actual actions are rooted in fact, not one's thoughts."<BR/><BR/>I think it is possible to test it. :)<BR/><BR/>Here's how:<BR/><BR/>We lock Buffet in a cell with no means of communication with the outside world at all. Then we randomly pick a number of stocks (perform some statistical thingy to determine how many we need for the result to be statistically significant), assign them codes instead of names, and ask him to THINK 1/3 of them to increase in value, 1/3 of them to decrease in value, and the last 1/3 to remain the same, without telling us which ones he assigned into which category.<BR/><BR/>Buffet will not know which stocks or companies the codes actually represent and he cannot actually know how they will perform, while we (and the rest of the financial world) will not know which stocks he is going to THINK into increase in value. In other words, it's a double-blind (triple?) experiment.<BR/><BR/>Then we monitor the outcome.<BR/><BR/>After a pre-determined period of time, we ask Buffet to re-assign the stocks into the 3 groups again, and again we monitor their performance. (Cross-over)<BR/><BR/>At the end of the experiment, we break the code and we see if the stocks which Buffet THOUGHT to increase in value actually did, and if they decreased in value after Buffet assigned them in the decrease group after the first phase.<BR/><BR/>It won't prove that Buffet's THOUGHTS actually influence the market, but it will lend weight to the argument that he is able to influence or predict the market, independent of his knowledge or actions, or the actual performance of the companies.angry dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03132410467147982699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-90273631142735626612007-06-25T16:23:00.000+08:002007-06-25T16:23:00.000+08:00Chris:Congrats and don't let Jimmy depress you. Mr...Chris:<BR/><BR/>Congrats and don't let Jimmy depress you. <BR/><BR/>Mrs Wang is thriftier than me, only not half as clever on investing. She is the kind of person who notices that the same brand of baby diapers cost $0.75 less at Carrefour than at NTUC, therefore we must buy in bulk from Carrefour. These are the kind of details that elude my mind.<BR/><BR/>Occasionally Mrs Wang pesters me for a luxury item (like a diamond) and when I finally say, "Ok, ok, I'll buy you a diamond," <BR/><BR/>then she says: "Haha, testing you only, who wants a diamond, such a waste of money."<BR/><BR/>If you ask me, when women say they want money, they mostly just want love & attention, haha.Gilbert Koh aka Mr Wanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027678080233274309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-80091601122057999112007-06-25T16:16:00.000+08:002007-06-25T16:16:00.000+08:00Thanks Chris. Will keep that in mind, although I d...Thanks Chris. Will keep that in mind, although I dont have the faintest idea where Sembawang Shopping Centre is. Somewhere in Sembawang I suppose. :PJimmy Munhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927345822970412901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-20558580291030334202007-06-25T15:40:00.000+08:002007-06-25T15:40:00.000+08:00To Angry Doc:It is true that Buffett can shift the...To Angry Doc:<BR/><BR/>It is true that Buffett can shift the market - stocks have had big moves when it is revealed (through filings or other public statements) that his fund has bought/sold. Problem is you can't possibly profit ahead of time from this without advance knowledge (which is an informatinal advantage that doesn't violate EMH). As for his thoughts, it's impossible to test as only actual actions are rooted in fact, not one's thoughts.<BR/><BR/>PZ:<BR/><BR/>Soros broke the pound taking advantage of an inefficiency, namely the Bank of England. He lost money because sometimes traders bet on beta as a substitute for alpha. The good ones don't get caught out for their final bow. "What have you done for me lately" is the only question that matters. Whatever you did in the past, you have already been paid for it,EPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15079620533629232769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-51674594122766450072007-06-25T15:29:00.000+08:002007-06-25T15:29:00.000+08:00Mr. Wang said:"George Soros himself relies on, umm...Mr. Wang said:<BR/><BR/>"George Soros himself relies on, ummm, a "my-thought-affects-reality" approach to trading.<BR/><BR/>More precisely, he uses a "my-body-predicts-the-future" approach to investing.<BR/><BR/>_______________<BR/><BR/>When he broke the Sterling/Cable and caused it to plunge from USD 2.0 to USD 1.55, purportedly reaping USD 1.5 Billion along the way it must have been mindhacking!<BR/><BR/>When his Quantum Fund lost USD 7 Billion in 6 months about three years ago why it must have been brain and body fart! :-)<BR/><BR/>PZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-71535218783341388322007-06-25T15:13:00.000+08:002007-06-25T15:13:00.000+08:00"Warren Buffett's thoughts are particularly powerf..."Warren Buffett's thoughts are particularly powerful at affecting reality in the world of finance. If he thinks that Share A will go up, his thought exerts a powerful effect (much, much more than the average investor's thought) on the price of Share A, causing it to move steadily upwards." <BR/><BR/>That is actually a statement that can be tested scientifically. :)angry dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03132410467147982699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-24593080534665540432007-06-25T14:21:00.000+08:002007-06-25T14:21:00.000+08:00Jimmy,This goes way out of topic but behind Sembaw...Jimmy,<BR/><BR/>This goes way out of topic but behind Sembawang Shopping Center ( Now demolished and under renovation ) is a lane called Jalan Malu-Malu. <BR/><BR/>There is a restaurant called Kampong Seafood restaurant which serves excellent Chilli Crab and Nonya Fish head. <BR/><BR/>I brought my in-laws there and spent less than $20 per head. <BR/><BR/>Bring your friends there if its a special occasion. <BR/><BR/>RegardsChristopher Ng Wai Chunghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15534057160494859977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-59941465500602993632007-06-25T14:01:00.000+08:002007-06-25T14:01:00.000+08:00"Nierderhoffer was one of George Soros's top trade...<B>"Nierderhoffer was one of George Soros's top traders, a contrarian whose stellar performance over 15 years made market history."</B><BR/><BR/>George Soros himself relies on, ummm, a "my-thought-affects-reality" approach to trading.<BR/><BR/>More precisely, he uses a "my-body-predicts-the-future" approach to investing.<BR/><BR/>Of course he will neither confirm nor deny it now, for fear of being perceived to be crazy. But his children have already told the media all about it.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1109198515.php" REL="nofollow">Link</A>.<BR/><BR/>Soros' investing intuition has converted into back pain. Whenever he gets a sudden spasm of sharp pain in his back, this is his body's signal to him that the markets are about to shift and he should sell.<BR/><BR/>You'd laugh, but then he is one of the most successful traders in the history of this planet.<BR/><BR/>I was going to blog about this in future, but I thought I'd mention it here first.Gilbert Koh aka Mr Wanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027678080233274309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4405345292513335071.post-7327480050843332112007-06-25T13:01:00.000+08:002007-06-25T13:01:00.000+08:00Chris,Congratulations! I dont mean to depress you ...Chris,<BR/><BR/>Congratulations! I dont mean to depress you further, but most men will agree that women will behave differently after marriage, especially those seemingly frugal ones. Every man should have heard of that "once in a lifetime", "once in a while" excuses from women to splurge, even from normally very frugal ones. If you have a hard capped limit on monthly expenditure, you are going to introduce unnecessary tensions.<BR/><BR/>But until your kids arrive, most will agree that the DINK stage is probably the most financially stable stage of their life. Simple economies of scale and diversification of risk. But with kids, there is no way you can insure away every single potential medical and educational need. You can do your best to cover the probables, and keep your fingers crossed about the improbables. Makes me prayerfully religious every time I think too hard about it.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I never said it is futile to have a savings target or to control one's expenses. I merely disbelieve it is possible to be 100% free from monetary worries, not with any sum less than a million anyway. <BR/><BR/>By definition, one shouldnt feel "insecure" after achieving financial independence. If you do, that only means you are independent only when subjected to certain constraints, like not getting married, not having kids, which is exactly what I mean by an illusion Worse still, instead of freeing you, it becomes a cage, restricting your options.<BR/><BR/>Last weekend, I just got dragged into an expensive meal because I couldnt say no to my wife's friends. Worse still, it was a treat, so now I owe them. And I cant possibly treat them back without eating myself, can I? Tonight, I am attending a wedding dinner at a posh hotel. I am already cutting down by going alone.<BR/><BR/>By all means, save up and live frugally. But unless you live in a cave, it is very hard to say "I earned enough. I will never spend more than this much every month."Jimmy Munhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927345822970412901noreply@blogger.com